Research question

What is the predictive value of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level for natural conception and its clinical effect on subfertile couples?

Design

A retrospective cohort of ovulatory women seeking fertility consultation in a private fertility clinic. Couples who had an immediate indication for IVF were excluded. All natural conceptions leading to live birth before the start of assisted reproductive technology were followed within 12 months of the initial consultation. A prediction model was developed by updating the Hunault model with serum AMH to predict the probabilities of achieving a natural conception leading to live birth.

Results

A total of 325 couples were included in the final analysis. The estimated cumulative proability of achieving natural conception leading to live birth within 12 months was 20.9% (95% CI 12.9% to 28.2%). The categorical net reclassification improvement of AMH is 7.6%. Fo