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Characteristic Parameters of a Seismogenic Source Zone Model in the Algeria-Morocco Region

Research Authors
Hamdache, M., Pelaez, J.A., Kijko, A., Smit, A., Sawires, R.
Research Abstract

In this study, a seismogenic source zone model for the Algeria-Morocco region is proposed for seismic forecasting and seismic hazard studies. The delineation includes five zones based on available seismic and geological data. The zone model includes the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell zone, the High Plateaux and the Atlas zone. Earthquake
occurrence process in this region is modelled and analyzed using recent and updated earthquake catalogs for northern Morocco and northern Algeria compiled in former studies (Peláez et al. 2007; Hamdache et al. 2010). For these catalogues, dependent events were
identified and removed by adapting Gardner and Knopoff declustering procedure to the characteristics of the study region. Magnitudes of completeness were estimated using different methods, then the Poissonian character of the obtained sub-catalogs was analyzed.
The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship, considered as an area-specific seismic hazard parameter, was initially computed using the Weichert (1980) approach. In order to characterize each seismogenic zone we have used a new parameter named seismic activity, defined as the number of earthquakes with magnitude above Mw 4.0 in
each seismogenic zone since 1925 by each 10 years and 10000 km2. The obtained results show for example, in the Tell zone, the seismic activity is equal to 2.6 and1.91 in the Rif region. The b-value estimation has been improved by using an extension of the Aki-Utsu bvalue estimator for incomplete earthquake catalogs (Kijko and Smit, 2012). Taking into account that the maximum possible magnitude is an important parameter required by earthquake engineering community, disaster management agencies and insurance industry, a detailed analysis has been performed using different statistical methods, free from
subjective assumptions and only related to the quality of the earthquake data file. Thus, the maximum possible magnitude, using parametric and non-parametric procedures, is analyzed at each seismogenic zone and its probability distribution function is derived. Then, we derive the activity rate   m  for events above the magnitude m, the return period for different magnitudes and the probability of exceeding a magnitude m during a time period of T years. The analysis has been performed at each seismogenic zone of the proposed model.

Research Department
Research Journal
SECED 2015 Conference: Earthquake Risk and Engineering towards a Resilient World, Cambridge UK
Research Member
Research Publisher
SECED 2015 Conference
Research Rank
3
Research Vol
NULL
Research Website
http://www.seced.org.uk/index.php/seced-2015
Research Year
2015
Research Pages
NULL